October 2019

Just over a week in, Turkey’s continuing incursion into Northern Syria has precipitated significant changes on multiple fronts.  According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of October 14 the fighting has forced up to 300,000 to flee their homes and resulted in the deaths of at least 70 civilians and more than 200 combatants – numbers that are certain to grow.  Instances of summary executions of combatants, unarmed civilians, and at least one local politician by Turkish forces or their allies in the rebel Syrian National Army (SNA) have been reported.  In response to Turkey’s operation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has autonomously administered much of Northern Syria, redeployed the bulk of its forces to the border regions targeted by Turkey.  One consequence of this move appears to be the escape of up to 1,000 ISIS-related detainees (family members and fighters) from an SDF administered prison and camp.

The United States’ October 6 decision to withdraw troops from the autonomous Northeast region of Syria that borders Turkey sets the stage for an expected Turkish military operation that could fundamentally reshape the region and upend the current fragile but relatively stable peace.  If the Turkish incursion leads to all-out armed conflict, tens if not hundreds of thousands could be uprooted, and civilian casualties are all but certain.  Turkey’s previous military actions in Northern Syria show how the situation might unfold post-conflict with potentially serious consequences for the Aleppo Governorate.  While this post focuses on only the areas within the Aleppo Governorate, the entire SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces)-administered region could face consequences to which this post alludes.